# Strategy Simulator API > Live Monte-Carlo simulation of a trading strategy's outcome that traders run to judge an edge — computed on demand and reproducibly, no key, nothing cached. Run a sequence of trades many times from a win rate, reward-to-risk payoff and risk-per-trade, and get the distribution of final equity, the probability of profit, the probability of ruin and the drawdown distribution; get the modelled chance of blowing up the account; or get the analytical edge — expectancy per trade, breakeven win rate and profit factor. Every run is seeded, so the same inputs always give the same numbers. A strategy-outcome engine, distinct from position-sizing tools and price simulators: it turns an edge into the equity, drawdown and ruin a strategy faces. ## Authentication All requests require your oanor API key in the `x-oanor-key` header. Get one at https://www.oanor.com/developer/keys. ```bash curl -H "x-oanor-key: oanor_live_…" "https://api.oanor.com/strategysim-api/..." ``` ## Pricing - **Free** (Free) — 4,700 calls/Mo, 3 req/s - **Starter** ($7/Mo) — 105,000 calls/Mo, 10 req/s - **Pro** ($19/Mo) — 512,000 calls/Mo, 25 req/s - **Business** ($45/Mo) — 3,140,000 calls/Mo, 55 req/s ## Endpoints ### Strategy Sim #### `GET /v1/expectancy` — Analytical edge — expectancy, breakeven, profit factor **Parameters:** - `win_rate` (query, required, string) — Win probability 0-1 Example: `0.55` - `payoff` (query, required, string) — Reward-to-risk ratio Example: `1.5` - `risk_pct` (query, optional, string) — Percent risked per trade (default 2) Example: `2` **Example:** ```bash curl -H "x-oanor-key: $KEY" \ "https://api.oanor.com/strategysim-api/v1/expectancy?win_rate=0.55&payoff=1.5&risk_pct=2" ``` **Response:** ```json { "data": { "note": "Analytical edge per trade. expectancy_R > 0 means a positive edge; breakeven_win_rate is the win rate at which the strategy is flat for this payoff.", "inputs": { "payoff": 1.5, "risk_pct": 2, "win_rate": 0.55 }, "source": "STRATEGYSIM", "has_edge": true, "expectancy_R": 0.375, "profit_factor": 1.8333, "breakeven_win_rate": 0.4, "expected_return_per_trade_pct": 0.75 }, "meta": { "timestamp": "2026-06-11T07:49:31.371Z", "request_id": "0c518a35-34a1-4126-8d82-5aacba9b27a7" }, "status": "ok", "message": "Expectancy computed", "success": true } ``` #### `GET /v1/meta` — Service metadata and endpoint list **Example:** ```bash curl -H "x-oanor-key: $KEY" \ "https://api.oanor.com/strategysim-api/v1/meta" ``` **Response:** ```json { "data": { "note": "win_rate 0-1, payoff = reward:risk ratio, risk_pct = % of equity risked per trade. Runs are deterministic per seed (default 12345).", "source": "Computed in-process (seeded mulberry32 PRNG, fixed-fractional compounding)", "service": "strategysim-api", "endpoints": { "GET /v1/meta": "This document.", "GET /v1/simulate": "Monte-Carlo equity outcome + ruin & drawdown (win_rate=0.55, payoff=1.5, risk_pct=2, trades=100, capital=10000).", "GET /v1/expectancy": "Analytical edge — expectancy, breakeven win rate, profit factor (win_rate=0.55, payoff=1.5).", "GET /v1/risk-of-ruin": "Modelled probability of ruin (win_rate=0.5, payoff=1, risk_pct=5, trades=100, ruin_drawdown=0.5)." }, "description": "Live Monte-Carlo simulation of a trading strategy's outcome, computed on demand and reproducibly. The simulate endpoint runs a sequence of trades many times from a win rate, reward-to-risk payoff and risk-per-trade, and returns the distribution of final equity, the probability of profit, the probability of ruin and the drawdown distribution; the risk-of-ruin endpoint returns the modelled chance of blowing up the account; the expectancy endpoint returns the analytical edge (expectancy per trade, breakeven win rate, profit factor). Every run is seeded, so the same inputs always give the same numbers. A strategy-outcome engine, distinct from position-sizing tools and price …(truncated, see openapi.json for full schema) ``` #### `GET /v1/risk-of-ruin` — Modelled probability of ruin **Parameters:** - `win_rate` (query, required, string) — Win probability 0-1 Example: `0.5` - `payoff` (query, required, string) — Reward-to-risk ratio Example: `1` - `risk_pct` (query, optional, string) — Percent risked per trade (default 2) Example: `5` - `trades` (query, optional, string) — Trades (default 100) Example: `100` - `ruin_drawdown` (query, optional, string) — Drawdown that counts as ruin 0-1 (default 0.5) Example: `0.5` **Example:** ```bash curl -H "x-oanor-key: $KEY" \ "https://api.oanor.com/strategysim-api/v1/risk-of-ruin?win_rate=0.5&payoff=1&risk_pct=5&trades=100&ruin_drawdown=0.5" ``` **Response:** ```json { "data": { "edge": { "has_edge": false, "expectancy_R": 0, "profit_factor": 1, "breakeven_win_rate": 0.5, "expected_return_per_trade_pct": 0 }, "note": "Ruin = the equity ever falls to a 50% drawdown from the starting capital, over 100 trades.", "inputs": { "runs": 10000, "seed": 12345, "payoff": 1, "trades": 100, "risk_pct": 5, "win_rate": 0.5, "ruin_drawdown": 0.5 }, "source": "STRATEGYSIM", "probability_of_ruin": 0.2174, "probability_of_profit": 0.3732 }, "meta": { "timestamp": "2026-06-11T07:49:31.600Z", "request_id": "fb35d261-1c14-4d6b-a076-eb25eed5d80b" }, "status": "ok", "message": "Risk of ruin computed", "success": true } ``` #### `GET /v1/simulate` — Monte-Carlo equity outcome + ruin & drawdown **Parameters:** - `win_rate` (query, required, string) — Win probability 0-1 Example: `0.55` - `payoff` (query, required, string) — Reward-to-risk ratio Example: `1.5` - `risk_pct` (query, optional, string) — Percent of equity risked per trade (default 2) Example: `2` - `trades` (query, optional, string) — Trades per run 1-10000 (default 100) Example: `100` - `capital` (query, optional, string) — Starting capital (default 10000) Example: `10000` - `runs` (query, optional, string) — Simulations 100-100000 (default 10000) Example: `10000` - `seed` (query, optional, string) — PRNG seed (default 12345) Example: `12345` **Example:** ```bash curl -H "x-oanor-key: $KEY" \ "https://api.oanor.com/strategysim-api/v1/simulate?win_rate=0.55&payoff=1.5&risk_pct=2&trades=100&capital=10000&runs=10000&seed=12345" ``` **Response:** ```json { "data": { "edge": { "has_edge": true, "expectancy_R": 0.375, "profit_factor": 1.8333, "breakeven_win_rate": 0.4, "expected_return_per_trade_pct": 0.75 }, "inputs": { "runs": 10000, "seed": 12345, "payoff": 1.5, "trades": 100, "capital": 10000, "risk_pct": 2, "win_rate": 0.55, "ruin_drawdown": 0.5 }, "source": "STRATEGYSIM", "final_equity": { "max": 55391.58, "min": 8786.81, "mean": 21087.54, "median": 20474.85, "percentiles": { "p5": 13750.91, "p25": 17635.48, "p50": 20474.85, "p75": 23771.37, "p95": 30486.67 } }, "max_drawdown": { "median_pct": 11.4158, "percentiles": { "p5": 6.8962, "p25": 9.6079, "p50": 11.4158, "p75": 14.124, "p95": 19.4148 } }, "mean_return_pct": 110.8754, "probability_of_ruin": 0, "probability_of_profit": 0.9976 }, "meta": { "timestamp": "2026-06-11T07:49:31.761Z", "request_id": "c5db3217-6bfe-4c4b-8aa2-ece27cce874a" }, "status": "ok", "message": "Simulation computed", "success": true } ``` --- Marketplace page: https://www.oanor.com/api/strategysim-api OpenAPI spec: https://www.oanor.com/api/strategysim-api/openapi.json